The second part of the conference highlights commercial developments in Fairfax County, mid-year economic forecast for the region and state of the real estate finance. Because of the contents, I will focus on commercial development in Fairfax corridor first. Then, I will cover the last part of the series with economic forecast & finance.
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Curtis Hoffman, Senor Manager of Real Estate Services with Fairfax County EDA, gave us the virtual tour of most if not all commercial development in the county. It was kind of a directory of who's and who's building what and how big of a space they're building. Overall he says -- vacancy for Fairfax's commercial market is down, inventory topped 104.4M SF, sublet lease is down, commercial market continue to rise, lease rates up, and speculative development is up. What's interesting to know that most of the commercial development slated for the county, are speculative in nature. Meaning -- that developers just build the office buildings without tenants. That's pure 100% specs!! Obviously, these guys know something that we...the individual investors don't know.
Looking at the virtual tour, there are four areas in the Fairfax County corridor, that worth watching for future growth. They are: Lorton, Springfield, Dulles corridor, and along Richmond Highway -- Fort Belvoir. We understand that Lorton, Springfield and Fort Belvoir would need to redevelop to accomodate BRAC moving into Ft. Belvoir. Other neighborhoods worth monitoring --Merrifield and Tysons Corner.
Some of the developments that will have a big impact for residential 'hoods (in my opinion) includes:
- Merrifield Town Center: an 80-acre mixed-use walkable community. Vantage condo is sold out and under construction. Estimate delivery around 2007.
- Dulles corridor: Reston Town Center, Reston SOMA (South of Market Street), Dulles Station West, Dulles International Center, Westfields. Westfields, will be the largest commercial market in DC Metro area with a total of 15 buildings 1.5 M SF with two Federal agencies already signed up as tenants. The development will be as the same size as Reston.
- Annandale: redevelopment of Heritage mall with retail, condo and office market. Since Giant supermarket won't renew their lease, the owner has proposed to redevelop the site into a mixed-use.
- Springfield: Springfield Mall is due for redevelopment. There's a proposal for a mixed-use project by completely redo Springfield mall. Real Estate reviews, says that it will include a town center lifestyle with streetscape stores, office buildings, residentials and parking. On the other side of the mixing bowl -- KSI is building one of their "signature" MidTown projects, a walkable community of mixed-use MidTown Springfield. The master plan includes, multi-family residences, retail, restaurants, offices, a hotel and civic center.
Springfield Mall: rendering [divaris]
MidTown Sprigfield
- Vienna: MetroWest, is a 55-acre development project with 35% planned for open space. The site is adjacent to Vienna metro station. This will be the new planned walkable community with a mix of 2248 residential housing of rentals and condominiums (in which every unit will be wired for high-speed internet), office and retails.
- Tysons Corner Center: There is a plan to redo Tysons Corner parking lot, former site of Circuit City for a mixed-use development. This is going to be an interesting project to watch, especially in anticipation of Silver line to Tysons.
[W]ith a new modern flair, Tysons Corner Center will become a gathering hub for our community with state-of-the-art recreational and entertainment venues, a sky terrace, residential condominiums and apartments, office buildings, courtyards, pedestrian walkways, street-side restaurants and retail stores with an appeal to all ages.
Finally, the projection for the coming years for Fairfax commercial market he says, that vacancy rate should continue to decline slowly, lease rates on the rise across the board, southeast part of Fairfax will continue to experience an increase in office development.
I am almost certain many of the commercial developers are working to have their space up and running -- in anticipation of future growth. Because it takes years to completely build and lease out a site.
Last week:
* N. Va Econ Summit: Transportation, Airports and Real Estate (part one)
